My share tips’ performance in 2024 and what I’d do with them now
As another exciting year draws to a close, analyst Rodney Hobson looks back at some of his most successful share tips, plus some that went the other way. He also updates his view on this lot.
31st December 2024 08:51
by Rodney Hobson from interactive investor
American stocks did well; European ones less so. That was 2024. Fortunately, I recommended more US companies than European ones over the past 12 months. Unfortunately, the strong dollar has dented profits for companies with a worldwide presence, but foreign currency moves have made shares denominated in the US currency more valuable in terms of sterling.
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One such company was Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO), which I favoured earlier in the year at $65. Later on, when the shares topped $70, I said buyers should wait for a lower level. Back down to $63, the stock is a buy again with the yield of 3% some consolation.
Rival PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP) was seen as a more grudging buy at just below $170, also with an attractive dividend, and the slippage back below $160, while a disappointment, is now cause to upgrade to a clear buy.
Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F) started the year with very attractive fundamentals, shares having fallen back from $25 to around $10. They are still there, with $11.40 having proved a formidable ceiling, but the current level seems to be a solid floor and holders have at least enjoyed a yield well above 5%. It is not too late to buy.
The floor at General Motors Co (NYSE:GM) was, as I suggested $31, and my buy recommendation at $36.50 was a good call as the stock is now above $50. The price/earnings (PE) ratio of less than 6 suggests there is more upside to come, but if you buy now it will not be for the yield, which is less than 1%.
I ventured to recommend semiconductor maker NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), a leader in AI technology, a buy just above $100, a level that I warned would not be around for long. There was another brief opportunity to buy at $102 in September but since then a new floor has been established around $132. This technology, like it or not, will grow exponentially, with only a handful of companies able to compete and room enough for all of them. It is not too late to buy below $140.
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Elsewhere in technology there was a great advertisement for being a contrarian investor. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc Class A (NASDAQ:CRWD) saw its shares slump by a third after it caused a global IT meltdown that left passengers stranded at airports, hospitals unable to treat patients and offices unable to use their laptops.
I felt that its cybersecurity products were so vital that it was bound to bounce back from $234. My confidence took a knock when $217 proved to be the bottom but was restored when the recovery turned out to be even stronger than I had hoped. The shares are back to $370, almost where they were before the meltdown. Take your profits and congratulate yourselves on your courage.
Retail giant Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) has performed remarkably well since I advised shareholders to stay in, having rated the shares a buy at lower levels in 2023. My hopes of an opportunity to buy this year at $57 or less never materialised but those already in have enjoyed another great year. Hold on.
Similarly, I urged shareholders to stay in at Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), previously recommended below $480, and as I thought, the good times have continued to roll with the shares having since doubled. The fundamentals suggest Costco has raced ahead of itself, so it would not be wrong to take some profits at this stage.
I warned investors that shareholders were taking an awful lot on trust at The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) but that returning chief executive Bob Iger had worked magic before and was worth backing again at $120. That looked a bad call when shares slipped below $90 in August, but they are back up above $110, where the buy stance remains.
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In household goods, I fancied Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ at $159 in January and later in the year felt the case for buying at $147 was even stronger. I was right about that lower level being a floor and still feel that this solid company is a buy. J&J is putting problems with its talcum powder behind it and should have a better year in 2025.
Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) was at a similar level to J&J in January when I suggested holding on. The shares are now up at around $170, so I got these two the wrong way round.
I certainly wish I had kept off the European beer. Having quite rightly argued that Heineken NV (EURONEXT:HEIA) was fully valued at €97, I relented at €90 to rate the shares just about worth buying. I really should have paid more attention to the warning signs I detected in my piece in April. Heineken is down to €70 and is no more than a hold. I did a better assessment at Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (EURONEXT:ABI), saying buy at €50 and sell at €58. The shares are still just within the bottom edge of that range. However, with the yield of just 1.6%, it is hard to see any reason to buy either for quick profits or income.
Nor has the European luxury sector held up as well as I expected. Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (EURONEXT:MC) has not stayed above €700 as I forecast and is down at around €630. I had rated the shares a hold, but this could now be the time to consider buying for recovery.
My suggestion to buy rival Ralph Lauren Corp Class A (NYSE:RL) at around $100 just over two years ago was a bit begrudging at the time, but I’m glad I encouraged shareholders to stay in this year despite a strong price rise. At the current level well clear of $200, I would still hold on. The bull run shows no sign of ending yet.
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From SFr100 in February to SFr75 now, it has been downhill nearly all the way for Swiss food group Nestle SA (SIX:NESN), so I was premature to think SFr95 was a buying opportunity. The fundamentals are strong and I think the shares are far too cheap, but cautious investors should remember that catching falling knives is a dangerous game.
As far as disasters go, you can choose between modest exercise bikes and mighty jumbo jets. I issued several warnings about two companies, Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON) and Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), until we reached the point where it was pointless to go on repeating myself. Those clinging to the shares in either loss-making company were clearly not prepared to listen to reason.
Peloton has been down to $3 but has edged back up to $10 in a triumph of hope over reality, while Boeing is also off the bottom at $150. I still see no signs of genuine recovery in either. The advice to sell still stands for those who belatedly are prepared to come to their senses. In both cases you will undeservedly get a bit more than you would have done a few months ago.
Rodney Hobson is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of interactive investor.
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